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Commercial Mortgages Show How Bad It Got
By FLOYD NORRIS Published: July 5, 2012
Just five years ago, the commercial real estate market was thriving. The delinquency rate on mortgage loans was at a record low, and the volume of new mortgages being sold to investors was at a record high.
Commercial mortgages — unlike residential ones — are seldom issued for periods of longer than 10 years, and often for as little as five. Many require no principal repayments during that period but call for the entire amount to be repaid in a balloon payment at the end of the loan. So it can be at maturity when the bad news arrives.
“Only 28 percent of the loans from 2007 due to mature in 2012 managed to pay off in full,” said Manus Clancy, the senior managing director at Trepp L.L.C., which monitors the commercial mortgage market.
Other loans in those securitizations were for seven or 10 years, so new waves of losses may arrive in 2014 and again in 2017.
Perhaps no loan that was securitized in 2007 illustrates the craziness of the market at the time better than one for a group of apartment buildings in Manhattan. The 36 apartment houses, principally owned by the Praedium Group and managed by the Pinnacle Group, run by Joel S. Wiener, had produced cash flow of $5.4 million in 2006, but they secured a loan of $204 million, on which annual interest payments of $12.7 million would be required.
How could such a loan be justified? The prospectus said Deutsche Bank made the loan based on forecasts that by 2012 the cash flow would have soared to $18 million a year, as market rents in New York rose rapidly while many tenants in rent-stabilized and rent-controlled apartments moved out. It assumed that the owners’ expenses would barely increase while rents soared.
The way the bank did the math, those apartment buildings were worth $255 million, so the loan was for only 80 percent of market value.